What is xG? (Expected Goals)

One of the most advanced metrics in soccer, 'Expected Goals' (xG) is a statistical metric used to evaluate the quality of goal-scoring chances created by a team or player during a match. It is a measure of the 'likelihood' of a shot resulting in a goal based on factors such as the location of the shot, the angle, the distance from the goal, and whether it was a header or a shot with the foot.

 

The xG value ranges from 0 to 1, with higher values indicating a higher probability of the shot resulting in a goal. For example, a shot taken from a close distance to the goal with a clear angle would have a higher xG value than a shot taken from a longer distance with a difficult angle.  A shot with an xG of 0.7 would result in 7 goals if the shot was taken 10 times and an xG of 0.2 would result in 2 goals out of 10.

 

xG is used by analysts and coaches all over the world to evaluate a team or a player's performance to generate quality scoring chances in training and matches.

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At xGsoccer we use a statistical framework to develop a systematic approach to training and improving shooting and finishing using data from the English Premier League, Spanish La Liga, German Bundesliga, and Major League Soccer (MLS).  This mirrors the approach used by professional clubs and Academies around the world.

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How xG is Implemented in Professional Soccer Academies

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“We work with some more advanced metrics," Cuthbert explains. "This morning we did a session on xG with our U21s. We explained that 0 to 0.1 was a low chance and that 0.3 and above was a big chance."

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Ipswich Town F.C. Academy. Head of Academy Performance Analysis Adam Cuthbert.